Private Credit Fund Redemption Risk Monitor

Q2 2026 Tender Window Analysis — Confidential
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Funds Monitored
10
Top retail private credit funds
Critical Risk
4
Funds at critical redemption risk
Elevated / High Risk
5
Funds requiring close monitoring
Combined AUM
~$209B
Total assets under management

Redemption risk is elevated as top retail private credit funds approach Q2 tender windows beginning in late April thru early June

Last data refresh:

Fund / AUM Q1 Redemption Rate Key Risk Factors Q2 Watch Signal Risk Level
Blackstone Private Credit Fund (BCRED)
$82B
 7.9%
  • Largest BDC with 26% software exposure
  • ~7% capital raised; injected ~$400M to manage NAV pressure
  • If Q2 > Q1, firm capital inject may not repeat; retail advisor sentiment fragile after headlines
 Critical
HPS Corporate Lending Fund (HLEND)
$26B
 9.3%
(gated at 5%)
  • First-ever gating event highlights liquidity strain
  • $580M unmet Q1 requests
  • Q2 queue pending
  • Unmet Q1 requests compound; BLK stock -7%; fund said 5% cap is “foundational” to model
 Critical
Cliffwater Corporate Lending Fund (CCLFX)
$33B
 >7%
(pending 3/11)
  • Interval fund with ~31% sub-funds
  • Limited control; $1B secondary sale completed
  • Saba Weinstein predicts 10–20%; if capped at 5%, massive queue builds for Q2
 Critical
Blue Owl Technology Income Corp (OTIC)
$6.2B
 15.4%
(raised to ~19%)
  • AI-centric portfolio with heavy software exposure
  • ~$400M loan sales completed to manage liquidity
  • Already hemorrhaging; Q2 could see double-digit requests again; Saba/Cox hostile tender
 Critical
Ares Strategic Income Fund (ASIF)
~$16B
 ~5.6%
(Q4 '25)
  • One of the largest non-traded BDCs
  • CEO-called UBS 15% default scenario highlights downside risk
  • Ares reputation on the line; Q2 tests if “overblown fears” narrative holds under pressure
 High
Blue Owl Credit Income Corp (OCIC)
~$12B
 Elevated;
Saba/Cox target
  • Saba/Cox tender at ~34.9%
  • Discounted NAV (~8%) constrains flexibility
  • Hostile tender creates price discovery below NAV; advisors may accelerate exits pre-Q2
 High
Apollo Debt Solutions BDC (ADS)
~$10B
 Not yet disclosed
  • Non-traded BDC with quarterly tender mechanics
  • NAV >$1B balance-sheet flexibility under pressure
  • If peers continue gating, ADS faces redemptions regardless of own fundamentals
 Elevated
Golub Capital Private Credit Fund (GCRED)
~$7B
 Not yet disclosed
  • Middle-market focus; 100% cash-funded
  • First-lien senior secured loans provide downside protection
  • Lower profile may shield from headlines but systematic retail pullback spares no one in Q2
 Elevated
Oaktree Strategic Credit Fund (OSCF)
~$4B
 ~4.2%
(Q4 '25)
  • Lowest PIK (~4%) across peers
  • Conservative positioning with ~0.5x net D/E
  • Best-positioned of peers but small scale = less buffer; watch for acceleration >5%
 Moderate
BlackRock Private Credit Fund (BPCRF)
~$2.2B
 4.5%
(met in full)
  • Smaller HLEND sibling; Q1 manageable, but now linked to broader gating dynamics
  • HLEND contagion spillover; advisors may preemptively redeem from BPCRF too
 Elevated
Source: Secondary research

Across the 10 funds, differing borrowing structures and available revolving capacity create differentiated downside risk under redemption pressure

Last data refresh:

Fund Type Current D/E Ratio Reg. Max Leverage Headroom to Max Borrowing Structure Current Liquidity Liquidity Rating Leverage Risk
BCRED BDC 0.65x 2.0x HIGH
  • Revolving credit facilities
  • CLO securitization structures
 $8.0B
(9.7% AUM)		 TIGHT LOW
HLEND BDC 0.90x 2.0x MODERATE
  • Bank loans
  • CLO structures
  • Debt securities issuance
 Est. 5–10%*
AUM		 TIGHT MODERATE
CCLFX Interval Fund 0.25 - 0.35x 0.50x
(33% assets)		 MODERATE
  • Senior secured notes (16%)
  • Credit facility ($4.2B capacity)
 $6.0B+
(18.2% AUM)		 ADEQUATE LOW
OTIC BDC 0.76x 2.0x MODERATE
  • Revolving facility
  • 3 SPV asset facilities
  • CLO
  • Unsecured notes
 $1.6B+
(25.8% AUM)		 STRONG MODERATE
ASIF BDC ~0.8 - 1.0x* 2.0x MODERATE
  • $700M notes at 6.35%
  • Interest rate swap (SOFR + 2.21%)
 Est. 3–7%*
AUM		 TIGHT ELEVATED
OCIC BDC 0.80x 2.0x MODERATE
  • Bank credit ($1.95B)
  • $492M cash; target 0.9-1.25x D/E
 $7.6B
(63.3% AUM)		 STRONG ELEVATED
ADS BDC 0.49x 2.0x HIGH
  • JPM revolving facility
  • ~$3B excess capacity available
 $2.7B
(27% AUM)		 STRONG LOW
GCRED BDC ~0.5 - 0.7x* 2.0x HIGH
  • CLO subsidiary
  • Diversified credit facility structure
 Est. 3–8%*
AUM		 TIGHT LOW
OSCF Interval / CEF 0.47x ~2.0x HIGH
  • Leverage to magnify returns
  • 93% senior secured portfolio
 $730M
(11.8% AUM)		 ADEQUATE LOW
BPCRF BDC ~0.6 - 0.8x* 2.0x MODERATE
  • Similar to HLEND structure
  • BlackRock credit facilities
 Est. 5–15%*
AUM		 TIGHT MODERATE

Regulatory Limit

BDCs: 2:1 D/E max (150% asset coverage) post-2018 SBCAA. Interval funds: ~0.5x.

Why Leverage Matters in Q2

Higher leverage = less NAV cushion during forced sales. OCIC/ASIF target ranges near 1.0x are risky.

Watch: OCIC & ASIF

OCIC targets 0.9–1.25x D/E — close to regulatory max. ASIF issued $700M in new debt at 6.35%.

Source: Secondary research
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